Litnet

Do not think for a moment that President Donald Trump’s threat to South Africa concerns only his warning to punish the country for its land reform policies or other overtly political issues and allegiances. To the contrary, South Africa – and all of sub-Saharan Africa – should not underestimate the potential long-term risks of Trump’s climate change denial.

Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement

By withdrawing the United States (US) from the global Paris Agreement, Trump is defying multilateral climate resilience cooperation, at a time when global average temperatures already exceed a critical 1,5°C warming threshold, and severe weather events are becoming more regular. Most countries still support the Paris Agreement to keep global average temperature rises below a critical threshold. The only United Nations (UN) member states that did not sign up to the agreement have been Iran, Libya and Yemen, and this week the new populist Argentinian president, Javier Milei, indicated that he also wants to withdraw his country from the agreement.

The US’s involvement has been important, given the country’s elevated levels of emissions and its potential capacity as a driver of change, but scepticism about the notion of climate change has been integral to Trump’s political dictum for years. He dislikes international bodies like the UN generally, but he has especially harshly condemned climate change as a “hoax” aimed at undermining American interests, especially its coal, oil and gas industries.

This, coming from the US president, defies extensive evidence of climate change and its impacts on water security, credibly observed and verified by the US’s own National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Their evidence shows conclusively that rising global temperatures affect the water cycle and that global average temperatures have increased by approximately 1,2°C since pre-industrial times. In the US itself, higher evaporation rates have exacerbated droughts, such as in the western US since 2000, and still affect the region – according to some, the worst megadrought anywhere in 1 200 years (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/western-megadrought-is-the-worst-in-1-200-years/). The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that glaciers lost an average of 267 billion tons of ice annually from 2000 to 2019. The IPCC points out that flooding destroys water infrastructure, contaminates supplies and disrupts sanitation systems, while heatwaves intensify evaporation, reduce water levels and stress ecosystems. Such data shows that rising temperatures, melting glaciers, changing precipitation patterns and extreme weather events are not “natural cycles”, but direct results of human activity.

In contrast to Presidents Obama’s and Biden’s commitments to global efforts to meet climate targets, Trump also withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement during his first term, but under President Biden, the country rejoined, contributing almost a quarter of the UN Climate Change secretariat’s budget. On day one back in the Oval Office, though, the re-elected Trump wasted no time giving notice of US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg – a global leader in the fight against climate change and the UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy on Climate Ambition and Solutions – has now pledged his foundation’s support to meet the shortfall. Bloomberg emphasised that “more Americans have had their lives torn apart by climate-fuelled disasters” and called for increased efforts to address climate change. But although the new US withdrawal from the agreement will become effective only in 2026, the announcement of withdrawal will by itself increase uncertainty. The Trump government might also pressurise other countries into lowering their commitments, slowing down global progress on mitigating climate change.

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“Trump’s decision to cut US contributions to international climate funds will also make it harder for African countries to secure adequate funds for water security and climate adaptation generally, and to broaden renewable energy efforts.”

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Trump’s decision to cut US contributions to international climate funds will also make it harder for African countries to secure adequate funds for water security and climate adaptation generally, and to broaden renewable energy efforts. This will almost certainly reduce African countries’ ability to pursue climate resilience goals. South Africa has some capacity to rally these countries and business communities to take climate risks more seriously, but there has been tension in cabinet and beyond (eg, in mining trade unions) on these issues. International multilateral and bilateral funders will likely continue their support to developing countries.

Without doubt, an end to US involvement in the Paris Agreement agenda will dent regional and global efforts to mitigate climate risk. This will affect the water cycle, as extreme weather events like droughts and floods increase and rising temperatures reduce water storage and oxygen levels, weaken ecosystems, increase water contamination and make more water unsafe for consumption. As rainfall cycles change, water systems will do so, too, reducing the availability and safety of ground and surface water, and putting pressure on sanitation systems, jeopardising efforts to mitigate the risk of diseases like cholera and malaria.

In southern Africa, the links between water security and climate change are particularly evident due to high reliance on natural water resources, variable rainfall and regular extreme weather events. In the last decade alone, this has affected most regions, such as with Cape Town’s 2017-19 Day Zero water crisis; Cyclone Idai devastating vast parts of Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi in 2019; unpredictable flooding in the Okavango Delta; Namibia’s ongoing battle with drought that puts its agriculture and livestock sectors under severe risk; declining rainfall and water scarcity in the Limpopo River Basin, shared by Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe; and lower rainfall along the Zambezi River and over Lake Kariba, compromising hydropower generation and water availability.

South Africa and the surrounding region experience harsh water quality issues, such as water contamination and flooding in informal settlements, and rising sea levels that affect freshwater aquifers in coastal regions. The Lesotho wetlands – for a long time seen as natural water reservoirs – are under threat of drying up, and this on top of human-induced overgrazing.

South Africa recognises climate change impacts, but its responses need help

South Africa’s National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (NCCAS) explicitly links water resilience to climate adaptation, focusing on improving drought preparedness, protecting water ecosystems and fostering innovation in water management technologies. There are gaps in execution, however, often due to institutional inefficiencies, weak coordination and insufficient funding. There are indeed differences of opinion, even in cabinet, on the matter, but President Ramaphosa has helped raise awareness, including by applying climate resilience principles in traditionally coal-based sectors, such as energy.

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“The Cape Town Day Zero crisis highlighted the urgent need for diversifying water sources, more robust demand management, and improved early warning systems. However, Cape Town had substantial financial resources, technical expertise, and quality local and international advisory support. These capacities are often absent in many municipalities.”

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The Cape Town Day Zero crisis highlighted the urgent need for diversifying water sources, more robust demand management, and improved early warning systems. However, Cape Town had substantial financial resources, technical expertise, and quality local and international advisory support. These capacities are often absent in many municipalities. Even where municipalities are aware of the problems, local skills and aging bulk and retail water infrastructure – from dams to pipelines and treatment plants – cause high water losses. In 2023, these losses were estimated at an average of 47,4 in municipal water supply, according to the Department of Water and Sanitation’s Blue Drop report.

As much as South Africa may want to calm down tensions with the US, it should continue its commitment to global efforts to address climate change. This requires structural reforms, greater accountability, and capacity building at all levels of government.

In his first term, Trump’s stances on climate change negatively impacted global efforts to combat climate risks and improve resilience. For developing countries, this curtailed transitions to clean energy, which heightened climate vulnerability globally. The Biden administration helped mitigate some of these impacts, which Trump threatens to undo.

For South Africa and other developing countries, bolstering climate resilience, sustaining the benefits from global support, and strengthening domestic policies remain critical. If the first few weeks of the second Trump presidency, including the US’s planned withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, is anything to go by, the benefits from global efforts are at risk of fading away. It is critical for South Africa to work with the region and the international community to protect and consolidate gains made under the Paris Agreement and other initiatives, even if they cannot draw on the US.

• Chris Heymans is an independent adviser specialising in the political economy of cities, urban development and water and sanitation service delivery.

See also:

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