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History will undoubtedly remember 2024 as the year of elections and also of multiple challenges and choices.
Exactly 30 years after South Africa’s first democratic elections on 27 April 1994, more voters than ever in history will be heading for the polls worldwide. National elections will be held in at least 64 countries, representing approximately 49% of the world’s population.
The current levels of polarisation, fragmentation and conflict in the world recall the worst days of the Cold War era. The conflicts between Israel and Hamas and in the Ukraine also do not augur well for world peace and for sustainable international economic growth and stability.
Here, one can also not ignore a number of conflicts on the African continent that preceded the aforementioned wars and that are generally ignored or regarded as less important by the international community and media. The conflicts and wars in the Sahel, Sudan, the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia and Ethiopia mean that Africans, too, cannot afford to sleep too peacefully with regard to the state of affairs on their continent.
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The World Food Programme needs at least R141 billion to feed the famished in 80 countries all over the world. In terms of its calculations, approximately 45 million people in southern Africa are in urgent need of food aid.
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It is also important to mention that Africa and the rest of the world have been repeatedly warned in separate reports by the World Food Programme (WFP) and the International Rescue Committee (IRC) – with former British Foreign Secretary David Miliband serving as its president and chief executive officer – that the above conflicts could turn into a humanitarian crisis that could paralyse the African continent. In January 2020, the WFP listed 46 countries in its annual analysis of global hotspots at risk of famine, warning that a staggering one billion people would need aid. In Africa, south of the Sahara, this crisis would affect countries such as Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Senegal and Lesotho. Namibia, Zambia, Angola, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Libya and Nigeria would also be affected.
The WFP is tearing the hair from its head, because they do not really know how to tackle this challenge. The organisation needs assistance desperately and is counting on donations from countries capable of rendering aid. The WFP needs at least R141 billion to feed the famished in 80 countries all over the world. In terms of its calculations, approximately 45 million people in southern Africa are in urgent need of food aid.
In its annual analysis of global hotspots where humanitarian crises could erupt, the IRC highlighted African countries like Nigeria, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
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Among the most important elections to be held in 2024 are, of course, the South African national election, the possible rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the United States, and the British general election.
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Among the most important elections to be held in 2024 are, of course, the South African national election, the possible rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the United States, and the British general election. The last one opens up the opportunity for the Labour Party to reclaim the government, with the Conservative Party under David Cameron having beaten the Labour Party under Gordon Brown 14 years ago in 2010, following 13 years of Labour government. Before I discuss the South African national election and its vital importance, I would like to touch on the American presidential election and the British general election.
The potential showdown between Biden and Trump will ensure high political drama, especially because their respective shortcomings are increasingly being dissected in the media.
Trump’s life is characterised by drama, tension, dilemmas, conflicts and crises, all very demanding of the Republican Party. Trump is known as a somewhat rough and unpolished figure. He famously has little love lost for the mainstream media, and has consistently accused them of publishing fake news. Trump is also notorious for his denunciation of earth warming: according to him, it doesn’t exist.
The Democrats have been fighting back by hammering on strong value questions around morality, ethics and social and political issues. They emphasise the political principles on which the actions of political agents like Trump should be based. When is political action rational or irrational? The Democrats revel in Trump’s foibles, failures and limited world view. They emphasise (they did when he was still president, and obviously also do now in the run-up to the American presidential election in November) the acceptable principle of a constitutional democracy that if a leader – in this case, Trump – fails his nation, he should rather resign or withdraw from running for the presidency.
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The potential showdown between Biden and Trump will ensure high political drama, especially because their respective shortcomings are increasingly being dissected in the media.
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The cognitive ability of the elderly Biden, on the other side, has been attacked, based on his increasingly incoherent and forgetful conduct and speech during public appearances. There are genuine concerns about the potential re-election of a president who has patently passed his sell-by date, centred on issues such as his advanced age, his health and his level of fitness. Moreover, Biden has recently been described by special counsel Robert Hur as an elderly man with a bad memory and good intentions.
Biden is overshadowed by Trump as far as knowledge of the economy is concerned. In a recent survey among 1 000 registered voters, the NBC (the biggest American TV channel, with the most viewers) found that 55% as against 33% of the voters thought that Trump had handled the economy better than Biden. Politically correct journalists, who refuse to think independently and who, moreover, have no formal training in or knowledge of the economy, describe Trump’s anti-socialist ideology as far-right or populist.
Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, Trump was riding a wave of popularity, especially for the “good performance” of the American economy. Opinion polls at the time showed that 56% of the voters were satisfied with the way in which Trump was handling the economy. Trump, inter alia, renegotiated trade agreements with multiple countries, deregulated the economy and lowered taxes. Unemployment levels reached record 50-year lows, and healthy income growth was recorded, especially among minority groups – black and Latin American communities. This low unemployment rate resonated strongly with the American dream, which has traditionally inspired Americans to pursue a higher standard of living. It also strengthened hegemony among Americans – something that was promoted, expanded and entrenched by Trump, and which has been an integral part of the world order for over 100 years.
To put the above unemployment rate into context for lazy-thinking leftists who are permanently outraged and aggrieved, driven by raw emotions and an absolute and complete sense of victimhood and inferiority: the black New York neighbourhood of the Bronx, situated in the poorest congressional districts, America’s 14th and 15th districts, particularly benefited from the job opportunities generated by Trump’s market-orientated economic reforms. And who has been representing America’s 14th district – which includes large sections of the Bronx – in the House of Representatives since 2019? None other than the Democrats’ foremost leftist socialist propagandist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (34), who has been accused of being ignorant of the workings of a market-oriented economy, despite the fact that she holds a degree in economics.
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History has shown that serving American presidents have an excellent chance of re-election, but that this chance diminishes if the economy is ailing.
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In the final analysis, everything revolves around the “economy stupid” – a phrase coined by former president Bill Clinton in the run-up to the American presidential election in 1992, in which he defeated the now deceased former president George HW Bush. Clinton’s remark is in line with the basic fundamental principles of a market-oriented economy, as captured as an organised science in the 1776 book The wealth of nations by Scottish economist Adam Smith.
History has shown that serving American presidents have an excellent chance of re-election, but that this chance diminishes if the economy is ailing. The re-election campaigns of ex-presidents Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush were torpedoed by economic challenges. As the American economy is currently not doing well, Biden will in all probability therefore not be re-elected.
The biggest elephant in the British election room is “illegal” immigrants and the general state of the economy in the United Kingdom. The issue is not, however, limited to Britain, but has been driving the political narrative across the Atlantic Ocean and worldwide. How this political phenomenon will be addressed by especially the Labour Party if they become the new government after the upcoming general election – as opinion polls indicate they may – is not clear. The Tories are also divided about this issue, but pieces of legislation that they have recently submitted to the British House of Commons make more sense than the Labour Party’s policy proposals, about which there is also a lot of internal warring.
At any rate, increasing globalisation, which is a direct or indirect cause of immigration, does provide many opportunities and also major challenges for the nations and people of the world. And you cannot lock people in on a piece of land. It is simply not feasible. Immigration is inevitable. I trust that the Israeli government will realise this before they mow down everything and everybody in Gaza. People migrate mainly for economic reasons: to improve their standard of living and to offer their children more opportunities. However, some do it to escape political or religious repression.
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Here, on the southern tip of Africa, political commentators, journalists, authors, philosophers, economists, thinkers and columnists unanimously agree that the 29 May 2024 election in South Africa will be a make-or-break event.
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Here, on the southern tip of Africa, political commentators, journalists, authors, philosophers, economists, thinkers and columnists unanimously agree that the 29 May 2024 election in South Africa will be a make-or-break event. The current trajectory of corruption, cadre deployment, chronic poverty, structural unemployment, nepotism, incapacity, unequal society, rising costs of living, squandering of money, reverse racial discrimination, the threatening fiscal abyss and the debt trap into which the country is falling could very well see us implode. Something fundamental will have to be done to rescue South Africa from such total collapse. Things are now so bad that the country’s money is finished and the economy has not grown since 2011. In fact, the economy is no longer stagnating, it is shrinking.
American economist Ricardo Hausman recently posed a number of searing questions regarding the South African economy, among which the most pressing were: Why is the South African economy growing much more slowly than any reasonably similar country in the world? Why is exclusion still so exceptionally high – even after decades of a number of policies aimed at supporting socioeconomic transformation? What will it take for South Africa to include more of its people, abilities, assets and ideas in operating the economy, and why have such actions not already been undertaken?
Deathly silence from the authorities. Obviously. What could one expect from people who think that they are flourishing while they’re floundering in a sea of incompetence? We should not be surprised at their lack of response. Their only wisdom – self-acclaimed and much vaunted – seems to be interference in the economy, resulting in total overregulation. Nothing more.
Despite these questions and suggestions from economists and economic experts, nothing has been done to implement structural economic reforms, including privatisation, as a foundation for economic progress. A month or so ago, the National Treasury released data indicating that the budget deficit widened to 6% in December, reflecting just one indicator of the crisis! This is contrary to previous projections of a budget deficit of 4,9% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Even more shocking is that the debt of the South African government is expected to reach R6 trillion by 2026.
The government will inevitably have to look for new loans to pay interest on our astronomic debt. In the long term, this means higher direct and indirect taxes, which will further pressurise the shrinking middle class. This will further reduce the expendable income of the middle class. The resultant shrinkage of our tax base will make it unlikely that our government will be able to continue to pay the various grants that approximately 30 million South Africans are currently receiving.
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What will it take for South Africa to include more of its people, abilities, assets and ideas in operating the economy, and why have such actions not already been undertaken?
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And let me not here refer to NSFAS, generally regarded by clear-thinking South Africans as an unemployment grant for students who under normal conditions would never have received university admission. The lowering of standards for university admission and at nearly every level of society means that the country is not receiving value for NSFAS funding from certain students. This means that tax money is being wasted, because having a degree behind one’s name does not mean that one necessarily possesses exceptional intellectual abilities.
The post-1994 notion that every Tom, Dick and Harry must possess a degree was born from a culture of inferiority, established in our colonial and apartheid eras. This notion took root in all levels of South African society post 1994. Political and social commentator Moeletsi Mbeki writes about this issue regularly in a nuanced way. At a human level, this phenomenon can, to a degree, be understood, because colonialism and apartheid created significant damage to the way in which certain people thought and felt about themselves. The question must be posed where the political and intellectual leadership is to address this issue. Why have Mbeki’s advice and pioneering thoughts in this regard been ignored? Our country is being destroyed in the process.
The tension at a geopolitical level between particularly large world powers means that the economy will in the near future shrink further at an international level. To me, this means that a small, open and insignificant economy like that of South Africa could expect less aid to halt its self-imposed economic shrinkage and crisis. Therefore, in the light of all these multiple challenges and crises, what can South Africans do to place their country on a new trajectory of sustainable economic growth and employment creation?
Firstly, I trust that you are registered to vote in the 29 May 2024 election for the National Assembly and Provincial Legislatures. Unfortunately, if you are not yet registered, you will have to wait another five years to cast your vote.
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When we go to the polls, the value systems of politicians or political parties should serve as our guidelines as to which party to vote for or not vote for.
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When we go to the polls, the value systems of politicians or political parties should serve as our guidelines as to which party to vote for or not vote for. Values are a set of principles guiding the actions and thought processes of us as political actors (that means you and me as individuals, political parties, lobby groups, etc) as set standards. The “lost nine years” and also the “lost 30 years” have taught us that the actions of many politicians have failed to meet our established value system standards. More importantly, however, this should encourage us as individual political actors to ask value questions such as the above before we go to the polls.
We should also appreciate the importance of elections within a constitutional democracy, because they offer us an opportunity to participate in the political process by voting to elect a new government or eject an existing government. Elections also enable us to elect our political leaders, such as members of parliament and councillors.
Elections also give us as voters a chance to participate in an indirect manner in the formulation of public policies. As voters, we have the choice to vote for a political party with the policies that we think will benefit us. Careful consideration of the policies of the various political parties before a choice is made at the polls will give South Africans the opportunity to move past race or ethnicity. South Africans are way too inclined to vote in terms of the old racial patterns of the past.
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Careful consideration of the policies of the various political parties before a choice is made at the polls will give South Africans the opportunity to move past race or ethnicity. South Africans are way too inclined to vote in terms of the old racial patterns of the past.
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The public policy – especially the macroeconomic policy – of political parties is set out in their manifestos. Post elections, these manifestos usually serve as the most fundamental sources in the formulation of the public policy of the majority party. Public participation in public policy formulation is therefore important, because public policy defines the goals and objectives of government.
Elections are not everything, however.
People should actively participate in political actions between elections as political actors (as individuals or in communities). Here, I don’t mean communities as specific racial or ethnic groups. I mean geographical communities, because communities have, over time, developed a specific character and level of involvement in community service.
Community service is the noblest form of service to mankind. It does not – or should not – involve the promotion of any political ideology. It is a welcome social orientation, especially in South Africa, a country of excessive, chronic poverty.
To abstain from voting or from participating in politics between elections is an attempt to define yourself outside of politics. It is also a recipe to doom yourself to total political irrelevance. But please hear the following.
It must be stated that not voting is a form of political protest that is quite acceptable in a constitutional democracy. There is no law forcing anybody to go and vote. In fact, the Bill of Rights, as ensconced in chapter two of the Constitution, confers on all people the right of political choice and association, which includes the right to vote or to abstain from voting.
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The assumptions and fake arguments of some quasi-intellectuals who argue that those citizens who did not vote have no say about the political circumstances in their local ward, their town or the country is pure hogwash.
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For me, on a personal level, political protest in the form of not participating in a specific election is quite acceptable, especially if it is accompanied by a well-reasoned and carefully considered argument. The assumptions and fake arguments of some quasi-intellectuals who argue that those citizens who did not vote have no say about the political circumstances in their local ward, their town or the country is pure hogwash. Such arguments have no intellectual merit and will be supported only by the horizontally thinking populace. Any person who decides not to vote will remain a citizen of the country without forfeiting any constitutional rights. He or she may therefore complain about poor service delivery like any other citizen, and also participate in public debates about the state of the nation and the future of the country.
However, because of the multiple challenges facing us, I would definitely encourage all citizens to do the wise thing and cast their votes to place our country on a new political, economic and social trajectory. It’s now or never.
Also read:
Election 2024: The Economic Freedom Fighters’ election manifesto
Kommentaar
Nugter redenasie. Nou wag ons op hete kole vir die ou datumpie. Van uitstel kom afstel. 😏