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Does he place all of the ANC members in the same category? Most important, it would be interesting to hear his alternative plans for South Africa’s political dispensation.
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It is interesting to note the political views of RW Johnson, once an anti-apartheid activist, in his most recent article entitled “The People shall govern. Or perhaps not” (in Biznews, 3 January 2023).
He is a British journalist, a political scientist and an historian. He was a Fellow at Magdalen College at Oxford University for 26 years and is today an Emeritus Fellow. His 2015 book entitled Look Back in Laughter: Oxford's Postwar Golden Age is destined to be a classic of its genre, due to its candid descriptions and humour. Johnson’s book has been called: ‘… a wildly entertaining mixture of acute (and often hilarious) personal observation mixed with history, some major revelations (the real story of the Thatcher degree debacle and of teargas bombs thrown into the House of Commons), and the whole laced with innumerable anecdotes, both humorous and telling. The result is an unparalleled picture of post-war Oxford. This book is bound to be a classic of its kind.’
A prolific political scientist, Johnson has produced no less than six books with South African themes and has been a contributor to the London Review of Books and a great variety of other journals and papers including the London Times and Sunday Times, for both of which he has been a foreign correspondent. From 1995 to 2001, he was director of the Helen Suzman Foundation in Johannesburg. Space does not permit full justice to his glowing career.
In his recent article in Biznews, referred to above, he presents his analysis of the current state of the ANC by saying it is governing less and looking at some options, such as coalitions.
Whilst few would disagree that the ANC is not in the position of strength it might have previously been, nowhere in the article does he refer to the new ruling for the first time employed by the ANC whereby branch nominations took place, rather than at provincial level as in the past – a move towards more representative party structure, and also one where perhaps we will see a new generation of leaders come through. This means that each branch was allowed to nominate one candidate for each of the Top Six positions of the party (president, deputy president, chairperson, secretary general, deputy secretary general and treasurer), now Top Seven as this was extended; and the branch nominations were consolidated to develop a list of the three most popular nominees for each Top Six position, as well as the 200 most popular nominees for the NEC. Neither did he mention that the ANC’s Electoral Committee, led by Kgalema Motlanthe, screened and vetted all nominees.
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It might help more however if there was a glimmer of hope, to perhaps reflect on some positives, rather than concentrate on the total gloom and doom picture that is painted. That glimmer we are looking for might lie in a new generation of leaders, of whom we saw several emerge in the ANC Conference of December 2022.
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Does he place all of the ANC members in the same category? Most important, it would be interesting to hear his alternative plans for South Africa’s political dispensation. He does refer to options for the governing party, for instance, the political actions of Ms Zille et al.
Permit me a personal take. When I read what RWJ has to say of SA, I think of one of the Fellows here at John’s next to whom I have sat on two occasions, discussing the current SA position; he is a leader in world economic policy. His reply was that the ANC should have sorted out its problems by now… coming up for thirty years after the proclamation of SA’s full democracy. Ideally, they should have. The fact is they have not and the prospects are unlikely that SA will easily emerge from its very difficult position with almost insurmountable challenges in so many areas.
Political critics and analysts are free to write like a RWJ or give their views like a Partha Dasgupta – it all adds towards a wider perspective. It might help more however if there was a glimmer of hope, to perhaps reflect on some positives, rather than concentrate on the total gloom and doom picture that is painted. That glimmer we are looking for might lie in a new generation of leaders, of whom we saw several emerge in the ANC Conference of December 2022.
Perhaps as an academic from one of the Western world’s leading institutions calling the recent ANC conference ‘almost farcical’, could he not also have looked critically at the new leadership which is certainly not made up of angels. This is published in the Daily Maverick and one appreciates Rebecca Davies’ candid analysis of the Top Seven warts and all.
Johnson already came to prominence in SA as a political writer and analyst for How Long Will South Africa Survive? The Looming Crisis. In it he predicts a lot of what is currently taking place – and comments that South Africa’s black leaders “appear to have fulfilled the worst predictions of their white supremacist predecessors…” which someone said “makes uncomfortable reading”.
What should it do?
Part of RWJ’s rationale in analysing a party such as the ANC is to use his extensive knowledge and experience as a political analyst, looking at parties elsewhere in the world such as the Italian Christian Democrats (ICD) that had ruled in Italy for 40 years. When he comes to making comparisons like that however, he does not place in context that any alternative to the situation then in Italy, was the Italian Communist Party. The ICD however was fraught with scandals and the abuse of power and so no one can dispute what he says about the similarities between the ANC today and the ICD then. What he does not mention is how Italy was locked in political upheaval with the Mafia rife, with assassinations of top politicians taking place, not least Aldo Moro, on 16 March 1978; and the gunning down of judges of the state.
The comparison between the ANC and the ICD might fit the mould in some cases… corruption and assassinations, but the question really is, what was the alternative? What is the alternative to the ANC? This surely is the big question in South African politics today, but nowhere as a political scientist does RWJ consider the alternatives for South Africa… neither does he need to (he does analyse the situation for coalitions). He has made his predictions for the South African political scene and they have all come true. However, politics is a dynamic field, and one can only hope that one way we as South Africans can have a future of some sort, lies in the energies of the next generation of leaders who bear with them the qualities of integrity.
See also:
Die ANC se 55ste nasionale konferensie: Kan die agteruitgang van die bevrydingsparty gestuit word?
Obstacles impeding oversight by opposition parties in the South African parliament