The South African 2024 national election – an assessment

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What a tumultuous election!

And the tumult is nowhere nearly over, with the dramatic return to public life of Jacob Zuma, now well backed and utterly determined – along with Julius Malema – to end the presidency of Cyril Ramaphosa. For such is their first and unchangeable demand for those wanting their cooperation and support in forming coalitions.

This note will address these developments in terms of “Winners” and “Losers”, and of course we must begin with the first of the election’s big stories, the travails of the ANC.

The losers

Loser 1: The ANC

A diminished ANC was certainly well predicted, but even the sagacious predictions of Gareth van Onselen and his remarkably astute pollsters, relayed to us by Frans Cronje, didn’t foresee the horror show of a decline from 57,5% of the electorate to 40%. Wow!

There is a statistic hidden from us, if we just consider losses in terms of percentages of the total electorate. And that is the startling statistic that the ANC’s voters, who numbered 10 027 575 in 2019, dropped to 6 416 000 in 2024. In simple language, the ANC lost 3,6 million of the people who voted for it in 2019, in the five ensuing years. If we subtract from this astonishing figure all the votes that the MK Party won, we still have about one and a half million missing voters – about all the votes that the EFF got in the last week – to account for.

This is the clearest sign of the ANC’s malaise – over a third of all its 2019 voters left it in 2024. Certainly many left to Jacob Zuma and his merry band, but certainly also well over a million stayed at home, unwilling to support their old party, and also unwilling to move on to any of the other parties on offer.

If we analyse further and consider the ANC’s losses province by province, we see that the ANC lost over two million voters in KwaZulu-Natal (1 331 000) and Gauteng (714 000), put together. In fact, in all of the nine provinces, the ANC took substantial losses, with the possible exception of Limpopo, where the ANC’s losses were only 35 000.

Plainly, the ANC renewal has, to date, not impressed the party faithful, and the obvious fact that the ANC’s public representatives are not out among the people is staring us in the face. Unconcerned public reps not delivering services – a lethal combination.

It didn’t take Herman Mashaba long to tell us that he had done more than any other to bring the ANC down. This statement is not just boastful, but is wrong in two ways. Firstly, the ANC was brought down by those four million of its voters who either stayed at home or voted for MK.

And secondly, the ANC has had a “terugslag”, no doubt, but it still has overall majorities in five provinces and a 49% majority in a sixth (Northern Cape), which is also control; it is the biggest party both nationally and in Gauteng, and the second biggest in KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape. Not dead at all. And, with MK and Julius now on the prowl, even the ANC’s most vociferous critics are to begin to understand the importance of its stability, moderate policy and commitment to law (with a few exceptions, who are at last being brought to book). As used to be said in the bad old days, the average English-speaking voter talked Prog, voted United Party and, in the dead of the night, said, “Thank God for the Nats.” Many will now learn to say, “Thank God for the ANC!”

Loser 2: The Moonshot Pact

This obvious piece of public relations chicanery, which anybody could see could never work, and whose promotion by sensible politicians is thus baffling, saw the Pact parties grow from 26,6% of the electorate to 28,3%. No, you won’t get to the moon with a slingshot.

Loser 3: The EFF

To date, Julius and his gang have never had to try their reverse gear, but in the last week they fell from 2019’s 1 882 000 voters to 1 525 000, a drop of 350 000 votes or 19% of their 2019 catch. Let’s see what a lower number of jobs on offer and competition from another policy-incoherent, corruption cesspool does to the market for Louis Vuitton and French champagne.

Loser 3: The VF and ACDP parties

These two parties made one of the oldest mistakes in politics – they tied themselves to the DA and seldom if ever differed with this party. Thus, come an election, the voter had to choose between them and a large party which espoused what the little parties did, and, of course, politics is about power and the voters went for the biggie. Thus the VF went from 415 000 votes in 2019 to 217 000 in 2024, and the ACDP from 146 000 to 96 000. Between them, they donated about 250 000 voters to the DA – I wonder if anyone said thanks?

Loser 4: South African politics in general

Our percentage poll dropped from about 66% in 2019 to about 60% in 2024. This apathy is shocking, and we would be wise not to blame the missing voters, but rather to start doing the necessary to remedy this disaster.

Loser 5: The individual candidate

If we have commissioned a voting system to accommodate individual candidates and it is not capable of seeing Zackie Achmat elected, the system is vrot and needs to be remade.

The winners

Winner 1: Jacob Zuma and the MK Party

The second big story from this election.

Founded nine months ago, and with Zuma joining six months ago, this start-up won 2 339 000 votes, thereby taking nearly 15% of all votes cast, and is the dominant (but not majority) party in its home province, KwaZulu-Natal. In the process, they flew past the EFF to become South Africa’s third biggest party. That is a stunning achievement.

And it appears to have emboldened the party hierarchy (Jacob Zuma) to stamp his presence – and his party’s disruptive potential – onto South Africa’s politics much as Donald Trump is now doing in the USA: “If I’m not elected, all hell will break loose.” Open up that sealed cellar and restock the baked beans and candles. Here comes a very unstable and dangerous time.

Winner 2: The IFP

Many predicted that with the passing of Buthelezi and the chaos in the royal family, the IFP would battle. Well, it didn’t. The 589 000 voters from 2019 grew to 618 000 – a tiny increase, for sure, but with the chaotic emergence of MK, a considerable achievement.

Winner 3: The Patriotic Alliance

Many are attracted to Gayton’s personal brand of braggadocio, and his homespun wisdom is delivered with an appealing charm – both tend to make one feel that he is all words and no action. Don’t be fooled. He took his Patriotic Alliance from 6 700 votes in 2019 to 329 000 in 2024, and that is quite an achievement for a party that he mostly self-funds, while taking on the massively funded DA.

Winner 4: The DA

Well, both a winner and a loser.

The DA went from 20,8% in the 2019 election to 21,8% in 2024. Good. But in reality, they lost 136 000 votes between the two elections.

Their movement appears to be: 2019 votes = 3 622 208. Plus ex-VF 200 000 votes and plus ex-ACDP 50 000 votes, minus votes lost to Patriotic Alliance, 320 000 votes = 3 552 000 votes in 2024 (in reality, it is 3 486 000). To have remained stable in such a turbulent world is an achievement.

Thus the DA appears now to be the near-sole “owner” of white votes, and it appears to be the dominant holder of “coloured votes”. But their intrusion into the black African group appears to remain limited – in an election in which the ANC shed 3,6 million voters, the DA appears to have picked up none of them. They either found the MK, or, if this was not to their taste, they stayed at home. The DA should appear more concerned about their perceived inability to attract black voters, otherwise their 20% ceiling will become constant.

Winner 5: Action South Africa, Rise Mzansi, Build One South Africa

While many would say that the many millions spent on these campaigns resulted only in nine seats in parliament (five for Action South Africa, and two each for Rise and BOSA), at least they are there in parliament to supply advice and their precious support. It will be good to know that they are there.

Winner 6: Frans Cronje

Cronje and his team of pollsters, headed by Gareth van Onselen, were remarkably accurate, even when their results seemed impossible. (MK at 14%? Bigger than the EFF?) It is great to see a local firm developing such excellent technology.

Five potentialities

The 2024 election was, for the ANC, catastrophic. The EFF has put a brave face on it, but they will face many problems from it also. The DA had a “hold on” election, certainly the envy of the ANC and the EFF. But their inability to catch the millions falling from the ANC is a terrible piece of evidence of their difficulties in attracting black votes.

Now comes the attempt to build governments in the national parliament and the parliament of Gauteng. Natal is, for better or worse, inescapably Zuma’s. Cape Town is a no-change scenario. All the other parliaments are also so.

For the national parliament, there are five potentialities:

The ANC goes it alone.
The ANC attempts to get enough of the “smalls” onside to govern.
The ANC goes with one or both of the EFF and MK.
The ANC and the DA attempt to find a working arrangement.
The EFF/MK attempt to pull together a non-ANC pact.

The first, second and last are all impossible – the first act of the new parliament will require 201 members of parliament to elect a president and a speaker. Between the ANC (160), the DA (87), MK (57) and the EFF (39), we have all but 57 of the members. Agreement between some of these is the only way forward. That, in an environment of long years of enmity and clear loathing on some parts, is going to take real leadership, courageous compromise and people abandoning prejudices and self-interest. I hope we find that they can do this. We will know in two weeks.

Litnet