“I think all of the war will spread. It is so difficult to get to an understanding between the big countries like China, USA, UK.”
Mr Igbarie sips on his coffee in a fancy Umm al-Fahm cafe. “The Third World War is happening now,” he says, unprompted. I look out the window and up the road in the direction of Armageddon. I couldn’t be sure of it, but I thought the clouds started to darken.” – A visitor to Megiddo, or Armageddon, Israel, quoted in the Telegraph, 6 February 2024
“The biggest anti-Semitic massacre of our century, [the Hamas attacks] are barbarism … which is fed by anti-Semitism and propagates it,” saidFrench president Macron on 7 February at a French state ceremony, paying tribute to the 42 French victims of the massacre. He concluded, “We must fight against hatred; we must not give in to rampant, unbridled anti-Semitism. Nothing can justify or excuse terrorism.”
These are strong words, which will be welcomed in Jerusalem by the Israeli public, still traumatised by the Hamas murders last year. But Macron’s condemnation doesn’t mean that France isn’t interested in a settlement. Macron, like the rest of us, will be hoping that the current Hamas-Israeli ceasefire talks can lead to something. The Israelis need convincing that Hamas will not use a ceasefire as an opportunity to re-arm. That’ll be difficult, but at least the two sides are talking through intermediaries.
Let’s hope something comes of it, because on the face of it, the world is seemingly trembling on the brink of a wider conflict, with global implications. That, at least, is in the opinion of a great many experts these days.
The Cold War is over, and Europe is in a Hot War now, says former British defence secretary Michael Fallon. European trade is at stake, as cargo ships are attacked on a daily basis in the approaches to the Suez Canal, forcing them to make an expensive detour around Cape Town. Freight costs have rocketed into the stratosphere.
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Nations whose trade is mainly with Europe are alarmed at the speed with which freedom of navigation is being threatened, and will naturally expect Pretoria to protect shipping around the Cape from enemy action if the situation should unravel further. With hardly any navy of its own, it would be odd if South Africa were not to invite competent warships to police the southern ocean and guarantee freedom of navigation.
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As a result, the Cape sea route, a neglected strategic asset for South Africa for decades and the reason the country was colonised in the first place, as a “refreshment station” for Dutch East India Company boats, is once again making headlines abroad. Interesting choices lie ahead for the South African government, which, through its support for Hamas, has willy-nilly aligned itself with the allies of Hamas, including the Houthi regime in Yemen, responsible for the Red Sea attacks.
Nations whose trade is mainly with Europe are alarmed at the speed with which freedom of navigation is being threatened, and will naturally expect Pretoria to protect shipping around the Cape from enemy action if the situation should unravel further. With hardly any navy of its own, it would be odd if South Africa were not to invite competent warships to police the southern ocean and guarantee freedom of navigation. In fact, in the event of general global disorder, Western warships may take it upon themselves to provide this protection, but would need a base. This raises the question of whether the Simon’s Town naval base would be open to them. They can take nothing for granted, especially since last year’s joint naval manoeuvres off Durban and Richards Bay involving the Russian, Chinese and South African navies, known as Operation Mosi. The stance of Brics members like India, Brazil and South Africa will therefore be of especial interest if things get rough – how will they take sides?
Actually, almost everyone everywhere is already affected by this crisis, which could lead to product and food shortages and high prices. That’s the reason why in Europe, in perfectly ordinary, everyday settings – the swimming pool, the gym, the pub, the card game, the school gate – you’ll find people today wondering out loud whether we are on the brink of a Third World War – another devastating conflict.
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It feels a bit unreal putting these words on paper, but a phantom is looming ever larger in the global consciousness. Something is definitely going on; turbulent daily news events describe geopolitical tensions of all sorts – military build-ups and diplomatic stand-offs.
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It feels a bit unreal putting these words on paper, but a phantom is looming ever larger in the global consciousness. Something is definitely going on; turbulent daily news events describe geopolitical tensions of all sorts – military build-ups and diplomatic stand-offs. It has reached the point where many stock market investors, fearful of a crash, are wondering whether to liquidate their portfolios and put it all into cash. On the other hand, the markets themselves are behaving in a perverse fashion, refusing to be intimidated by the dangers of war. They are doing very well. The average citizen looking for a home for his savings can be forgiven for being confused.
The self-evident catalyst for a potential global conflict is, of course, the rivalry between the major powers – the United States of America, China and Russia – all of whom are vying for dominance in economic, technological and military areas. As they try to outflank one another with the help of proxies and alliances of all kinds, the potential for unintended consequences increases. Territorial disputes (think Palestine, Ukraine, Taiwan, North and South Korea), cyberattacks and economic competition create a volatile mix that could easily tip the balance towards a full-blown war by triggering a domino effect.
To make matters worse, ever since 1945, the multilateral organisations we have relied on to manage disputes and maintain stability, like the United Nations, the World Trade Organization and a range of other international bodies, have had their authority eroded. They have been drawn into nasty disputes, like Ukraine and the Middle East, and as a result have largely ceased to be effective mechanisms for conflict resolution. They are being sidelined by belligerents because they are perceived as having lost their neutrality.
Testing Trident
Nothing has focused attention more in the UK than reports that Britain is going to test-fire a real live Trident nuclear missile from HMS Vanguard, an atomic UK submarine. This will be the first such test in many years, and shipping in the region of the test has been warned to stay clear as Vanguard has sailed into the Atlantic at the beginning of February.
Of course, the North Koreans routinely do such tests as part of their “beauty parade” propaganda, but it is one thing when they do it and quite another when the British bulldog growls amid growing fears of a global conflict. Mass circulation newspapers like the Daily Mail have dusted off old videos of what to do in the event of a nuclear attack, and have reminded readers of refurbished atom bomb-proof shelters where the authorities will retreat if the country is threatened.
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The broad scenario voiced by academics and commentators supposes that China might invade Taiwan, which would occupy America’s complete attention.
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The broad scenario voiced by academics and commentators supposes that China might invade Taiwan, which would occupy America’s complete attention. This would free up the Russians to “settle scores” with former Russian regions like Ukraine, Poland, Finland, Estonia, etc. In fact, one growing concern is the possibility that a newly elected President Trump will embrace isolationism and cut US support for Nato altogether, as he has threatened to do before. German reluctance over the years to pay their required 2% of GDP to bolster Nato has contributed to Trump’s disillusionment with the Europeans. Britain, with an army smaller than at any time since Waterloo, is also falling behind, no longer able to lead a credible European coalition.
Meanwhile, we are being told that around the world, authoritarian regimes are failing to deliver on promises to tackle poverty and grow their middle classes. These regimes have become paranoid about internal dissent and are shoring up their power by inventing external enemies. The Russian economy is a good example. It has been weakened by sanctions, adapting to a war economy by growing its military power, despite huge losses on the battlefield. But its citizens are suffering and becoming restless. China, too, is under the lash economically, with growth stuttering. Chinese citizens, like Russian citizens, are restless.
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In the space of the past fortnight, Donald Trump, no less, has warned that we are “on the brink of World War Three”, while Ukraine’s Zelensky has claimed that Putin is preparing to attack Nato, and “that certainly means the Third World War”. British defence secretary Grant Shapps says we have moved from a post-war world to a pre-war world.
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In the space of the past fortnight, Donald Trump, no less, has warned that we are “on the brink of World War Three”, while Ukraine’s Zelensky has claimed that Putin is preparing to attack Nato, and “that certainly means the Third World War”. British defence secretary Grant Shapps says we have moved from a post-war world to a pre-war world. The chief of the British general staff, General Sir Patrick Sanders, has said that when war “eventually [comes]”, Britain will be in no position to win it. German military types have even war-gamed a scenario in which President Putin might trigger a war by moving troops into the Suwalki Gap, the thin strip of land along the Poland-Lithuania border between Kaliningrad and Belarus.
Conscription
Faced with all these war drums being banged, Europe is bracing itself for war in the age-old traditional way familiar to South Africans of a certain age – national conscription. Every European Nato member has been having this discussion in one form or another – including some who have not yet joined Nato but who have applied. Sweden was bluntly told by its civil defence minister that there could be war in Sweden after 200 years of peace and neutrality. Sweden formally applied to join Nato in 2022.
Germany is going down a similar route. General A Sollfrank, commander of a Nato logistics centre in Germany, said that an “aggressor” would use the full spectrum of kinetic and non-kinetic force – including drones, missiles and electronic warfare – to hit rear areas. Germany phased out conscription after reunification between East and West Germany, but is now actively exploring the possibility of reintroducing it.
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In short, Europe is busy re-arming in one form or another. Munitions factories are humming; tanks are being built, jet planes and drones assembled, shipyards revived. The decks are being cleared, so to speak. The argument is that only by re-arming can the West ensure peace.
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In the UK, there is also a discussion going on about reintroducing conscription. With an election planned for later this year, the government is holding off making any decisions, but the possibility of bringing back national service, phased out 50 years ago, will definitely be on the table if war becomes imminent.
In short, Europe is busy re-arming in one form or another. Munitions factories are humming; tanks are being built, jet planes and drones assembled, shipyards revived. The decks are being cleared, so to speak. All this activity is intended to send a clear signal to the autocratic world that it shouldn’t chance its arm. The argument is that only by re-arming can the West ensure peace.
Analogy with history
The counter argument to all this military preparation is that it only increases the likelihood of war and doesn’t diminish it. Scholars say that this was a reason for the speed with which nations went to war in 1914.
In her epic award-winning history, The guns of August1, historian Barbara Tuchman described in gripping prose how the First World War began. It all happened very quickly – in the space of 30 days. On 28 June 1914, the archduke of Austria-Hungary and his wife were murdered in Sarajevo by a Serbian nationalist. The deed could not go unanswered, and exactly a month later, on 28 July 1914, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, triggering the start of World War I.
In the single following week, Germany invaded Luxembourg and Belgium. France invaded Alsace. British forces arrived in France, and a clutch of nations joined the fray. These included South Africa, Russia, Italy, Rhodesia, Romania, Greece, France, Belgium, the United States, Canada, Serbia, India, Portugal, Montenegro and Poland.
Now, in a demonstration of uncanny synchronicity a little more than a century later, the warnings of a new world war are echoing across the ether. With equally alarming speed, western Europe, the United States and countries in the Far East are once again preparing against a possible war, and the “peace dividend” following the fall of the communist Soviet Union and the Berlin Wall has been disappointingly short-lived.
The world at war: choppy waters lie ahead.
1 Barbara Tuchman, The Guns of August. Penguin, 2014.
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