If a budget is not approved, the rules of Parliament is unclear and may point to a constitutional blind spot. A Parliament brochure on the Budget process from 2016, states: “The Budget is so important that if Parliament rejects the Budget, the government will usually resign and an election will be held to elect a new government”. It would, under normal conditions, be a massive political crisis, but there is a catch in the 1996 South African Constitution.
For an answer to this question, we must look at the 1996 Constitution for clarity. When political parties are at loggerheads, a motion of no confidence is usually an instrument used to topple a government. Section 102 of the Constitution explains the motion of no confidence in Parliament and sets out the procedure and implications in two specific parts:
- If the National Assembly, by a vote supported by a majority of its members, passes a motion of no confidence in the Cabinet, excluding the President, the President must reconstitute the Cabinet. This can be regarded as the soft option.
- If the National Assembly, by a vote supported by a majority of its members, passes a motion of no confidence in the President, the President and the other members of the Cabinet and any Deputy Ministers must resign. This is the second and the hard option.
From these two subsections it is clear that a motion of no confidence in the cabinet would not create the conditions for an early election, only the re-appointment of a new cabinet or a reconstituted GNU. However, a motion of no-confidence in the president would create a condition where an early election might be necessary, but there is a serious catch! In both cases, the President remains in control until the necessary changes are made. If the President resigns, the National Assembly must elect a new President within 30 days.
But here is the catch: Section 50 of the Constitution becomes very important in the scenario where an early election is contemplated. This section explains the dissolution of the National Assembly in two sections i.e.:
- The President must dissolve the National Assembly if— (a) the Assembly has adopted a resolution to dissolve with a supporting vote of a majority of its members; and (b) three years have passed since the Assembly was elected.
- The Acting President must dissolve the National Assembly if— (a) there is a vacancy in the office of President; and (b) the Assembly fails to elect a new President within 30 days after the vacancy.
From Section 50 it is obvious that no early elections in South Africa would currently be possible and that creates a very important constitution dilemma, less than 9 months into the 7th Parliaments’ term of five years.
My view is that all the parties are aware of this constitutional dilemma and therefore have no choice but to work out a compromise on the budget to avoid the unthinkable.