South Africa’s 2026 municipal elections are likely to take place in the last quarter of the year. Much will still be written, said and – annoyingly – also warped, over the course of the year. Let us then reflect briefly on what South Africans might expect and want to consider as the elections loom – especially on service delivery, fiscal sustainability, broader political change, and governance and accountability, or the lack thereof.
Do previous municipal elections provide a credible baseline?
The previous local government elections (in 2021) marked a clear departure from earlier cycles dominated by single-party control. Then, amid considerable political turmoil and weakening service delivery in several municipalities, official results from the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) showed that the African National Congress (ANC) fell below 50% of the national municipal vote.
Several municipalities returned no outright majority. Of the eight large metropolitan municipalities, only three – Buffalo City / East London (ANC), Cape Town (DA) and Ekurhuleni (East Rand) – ended with clear single-party majorities. In all the five other metros, coalitions were formed to mobilise majorities, ie, in eThekwini (Durban), Johannesburg, Mangaung (Bloemfontein), Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth) and Tshwane (Pretoria). Subsequently, political control has been fluid in all the coalition-led cases.
These outcomes entrenched coalition and minority municipal governments as a structural feature of local governance. In many municipalities, therefore, the 2026 municipal elections will not be contested from a position of dominant-party stability, but from a baseline of fragmented councils and narrowing governing margins. This means that campaigners and voters alike need to focus less on single-party dominance and more on coalition dynamics, issue-specific voter mobilisation and the role of smaller parties, which in some cases may be increasingly able to influence priorities, policy and governance, even without holding the majority.
Lessons from recent municipal by-elections since 2021
Municipal by-elections since 2021 provide granular, ward-level insight into how the fragmentation of municipalities has evolved. While by-elections must be interpreted cautiously due to low turnout and limited scale, several patterns are evident:
Reduced electoral margins in the large metros1 demonstrate political fluidity. Especially in by-elections, incumbents might often have retained wards, but with reduced margins. Smaller parties – notably the Patriotic Alliance (PA) and ActionSA – have increased their vote shares and, in some cases, won wards outright. However, turnout in these contests is frequently below 30%, meaning that small mobilisation efforts in 2026 could well shift outcomes.
These results suggest erosion rather than full collapse of major-party support. Crucially, though, in already fragmented metros even modest by-election shifts underline how competitive the relationships within these councils remain and how vulnerable governing coalitions are to possible electoral shifts.
By-elections in smaller urban municipalities display a different dynamic. Results here often hinge on very small absolute numbers of voters, which has made outcomes highly sensitive to turnout, the reputations of candidates, and local disputes rather than broad party-system shifts.
For example, in Saldanha Bay in the Western Cape and in several municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal, more recent ward-level by-elections produced wins for the Economic Freedom Front (EFF) and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK), despite overall DA and ANC dominance in the affected municipalities. Similarly, the PA has also run the more settled parties close in several wards, and even achieved some victories in former ANC and DA strongholds.
These outcomes did not necessarily alter overall municipal control, but revealed pockets of intense local contestation that cut across provincial and national voting patterns. They highlight, though, that localised dissatisfaction with service delivery, leadership disputes or perceived corruption can create openings for smaller parties, suggesting that voters are increasingly issue-driven rather than purely loyal to a party. With margins narrowing, this could cause quite a few surprises in the forthcoming municipal elections.
Several structural factors explain the divergent patterns between metros and smaller urban municipalities:
- Personalised politics: In smaller municipalities, voters often have direct knowledge of candidates, making individual credibility and responsiveness more important than party brands.
- Lower barriers to entry: Campaigning is cheaper and more accessible, allowing smaller parties and independents to compete effectively.
- Turnout sensitivity: Slight changes in participation can decisively alter outcomes, producing volatility without sustained realignment.
- Weaker national framing but local strengths: The recent Patriotic Front (PF) wins indicate space for smaller parties and for reducing the influence of national political narratives.
- Coalitions and hung councils indicating heightened contestation: Since 2021, coalitions have become more “normal” rather than exceptional, particularly in metropolitan municipalities. Nelson Mandela Bay and Tshwane have demonstrated that contestation now extends beyond elections into the governing process itself. Even where by-elections do not dramatically alter seat totals, they occur in unstable environments where small electoral changes can have big political consequences.
It is important to be explicit about the limits of forecasting, as South Africa lacks consistent nationwide, municipal-level opinion polling. By-elections are affected by low turnout and cannot be treated as representative samples. Also, voter behaviour in by-elections does not always translate to general elections. Therefore, while trends can indicate areas of vulnerability or potential surprises, predicting exact outcomes at the ward level remains highly speculative, reinforcing the theme of uncertainty that characterises the 2026 elections.
Could there be surprises in 2026?
Indeed, for instance:
- Breakthroughs by smaller and local parties in metros or secondary cities
- Local vote swings taking on service delivery failures and leadership disputes that lack accountability to voters
- Unexpected coalition configurations, even when results appear stable
- Turnout shocks, either upward or downward, altering expected outcomes
These possibilities reinforce the argument that uncertainty itself is a defining feature of the lead-up to the 2026 municipal elections. This requires sensitivity to local volatility, and parties would be well advised to robustly assess shifts in voter sentiment and governance expectations.
Are there differences between metros and smaller urban municipalities?
There have been marked differences between metropolitan municipalities and smaller urban local authorities. In major metros, political contestation since 2021 has been visible in fragmentation, narrowing margins and deepening coalition politics, making outcomes increasingly sensitive to small vote shifts. By contrast, smaller urban municipalities display volatility driven by local dynamics rather than partisan political alignment.
The 2026 municipal elections will therefore likely be most intensely contested in metropolitan centres, while smaller municipalities may remain broadly stable, albeit not entirely free of localised disruptions. In practical terms, this means that political campaigns in metros will need sophisticated coalition management and voter targeting, while in smaller municipalities, candidate reputation and community engagement may be decisive.
In conclusion
Fragmented councils and election patterns, coalition governance and voter dissatisfaction point towards more uncertainty, competition, narrow mandates and fragile coalitions, especially in the cities. The state of affairs and the build-up to the forthcoming municipal elections suggest that traditional party loyalties might not always hold strong amid what seems increasingly like new political dynamics in South African politics, even if there is not a sweeping shake-up everywhere in the local scene.
Chris Heymans is an independent analyst and advisor on the political economy of cities, urban development and water and sanitation.
Endnote:
1 These comprise Buffalo City (East London), Cape Town, Ekurhuleni (East Rand), eThekwini (Durban), Johannesburg, Mangaung, Nelson Mandela Bay and Tshwane (Pretoria).
Kommentaar
Die politiek is, was, en sal altyd net 'n selfverrykingonderneming bly en hulle ongeag die T-hemp wat hulle dra, was nog nooit 'n oplossing nie. Die gemeenskap sal moet 'n teenwig ontwikkel vir politiek en amptenare deur aktief aan apolitieke organisasies deel te neem. Anders verdien ons doodeenvoudig die gebrekkige dienslewering en gebrek aan verantwoording