Abstract
With the Russian military invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the world at large was divided, and so was South Africa. While most countries condemned the invasion, South Africa’s government sided with the African National Congress’s (ANC’s) erstwhile ally by not condemning the attack. Although Afrikaners have a historical connection with the West, some Afrikaners have also indicated that they hold pro-Russian views.
The war in Ukraine is the first large-scale conventional war in Europe between two strong powers since the advent of the internet, and both sides have used online platforms to defend their position while trying to undermine the opponent’s position. Russia in particular has developed an extensive propaganda network since around 2011 which tries to strengthen Russia’s global position by trying to weaken its enemies on the one hand, while on the other hand trying to establish pro-Russian views abroad. As part of Russian efforts to undermine Western societies, Russian state, state-affiliated and non-state-affiliated institutions, such as the Internet Research Agency (IRA), have used social media channels to interfere in Western elections (usually on the side of right-wing parties and candidates), tried to undermine trust in the Western media, tried to widen existing fault lines in Western societies, spread conspiracy theories, and also spread misinformation around COVID-19 and vaccinations. On the other hand, Russian propaganda also presented Russia as the bastion of conservative Christian values. These propaganda networks make use of almost all major social media channels and also target South African society. However, this use of online platforms such as digital news and social media is also taking place during a time of fake news, distrust in the mainstream media and science, as well as the spreading of conspiracy theories in general.
This article examines the traces of Russian propaganda in the comments on Maroela Media’s news reports and opinion pieces about the war in Ukraine. For this, Russian propaganda narratives are identified with the help of a literature review, after which an investigation is carried out into whether pro-Russian comments on Maroela Media’s news reports and opinion pieces about the war in Ukraine correspond to narratives spread by Russia about this war. Maroela Media is currently the most popular Afrikaans news channel, and is also available free of charge, which means that Maroela Media offers the greatest opportunity for people to read and comment on this war in Afrikaans. The Russian propaganda narratives identified and investigated are the following:
- Anti-NATO and NATO expansion.
- The representation of Novorossiya, which considers Donetsk and Luhansk as part of Russia.
- That Ukrainians in the Crimean Peninsula welcomed the Russian annexation, the associated view that Russia is liberating Ukrainians, that the Ukrainian government oppresses people in the Donbas with violence (even genocide), and the associated view that Russia helps separatists.
- The fall of Viktor Yanukovych was a fascist coup, and the new government consists of neo-Nazis.
- The Ukrainian government is corrupt and has failed.
- The establishment of biological weapons laboratories by the West in Ukraine.
- The Western media are not reliable.
- Russia stands for conservative Christian values.
Of the 1 427 comments in this dataset, posted from 25 January 2022 to 20 February 2023, 52% could not be linked to pro-Russian or pro-Ukrainian views, but of the comments that could be, 25% were pro-Ukrainian and 23% pro-Russian.
Of the pro-Russian comments, the overwhelming majority (43%) express an anti-NATO and anti-Western view. Various comments express a view that Russia is threatened by NATO, with some also believing that NATO expansion will target China next. Comments also claim that the New World Order (NWO) is driven by NATO and resisted by Russia.
24% of pro-Russian comments refer to the unreliable Western media (in some comments referred to as “MSM” for “mainstream media”), contain claims that the Russian media are spreading the “truth”, and that the Western media spread “propaganda”.
Almost 7% of pro-Russian comments refer to the liberation of Donbas, with many references to alleged human rights violations in this area by the Ukrainian forces. In this respect, Russia is portrayed as a saviour of the oppressed Russian minority.
The rest of the pro-Russian comments refer to the alleged biological weapons laboratories in Ukraine (6%), refer to Ukraine as a failed state (6%) (with mention of corruption in the Ukrainian government, their incompetent leadership, or that Zelensky was not democratically elected), and that the Ukrainian government consists of neo-Nazis (5%). Only a few comments (2%) refer to Russia as being conservative, versus the view that the West is liberal. There are also very few comments (1%) that mention that Ukraine should be part of Russia.
Overall, 92% of pro-Russian comments on these Maroela Media reports and opinion pieces can be linked to themes found in Russian propaganda, with only 8% expressing other pro-Russian sentiments.
It is therefore clear that Russian propaganda is reflected in the comments on Maroela Media’s reports and opinion pieces on this conflict. In some pro-Russian arguments, however, the connection is clearer than in others. While the allegation of biological weapons laboratories in Ukraine, human rights violations by the Ukrainian forces, the oppression of people in the Donbas region, and the labelling of the Ukrainian government as neo-Nazis, suggest a connection between Russian propaganda and Afrikaans comments on these reports and opinion pieces, other causes may be responsible for anti-Western media and anti-NATO sentiments. The current zeitgeist, which is characterised by a loss of trust in the professional media, could also be responsible for anti-Western media views. A strong anti-American sentiment is also already established and the war in Ukraine can possibly only be a manifestation of this sentiment.
Although this study makes no claim that it represents an opinion survey among Afrikaners in general, the finding that Russian propaganda is reflected in these comments is an indication that a more representative opinion survey among Afrikaners would be of value.
Keywords: conflict; misinformation; propaganda; Russia; social media; Ukraine; war
Kommentaar
Deeglike, objektiewe, wetenskaplike navorsing wat hoogs moontlik nie by die mense wat juis daardie Russiese propaganda aanhang, gaan uitkom nie. Ook opmerklik is die taalgebruik van daardie aanhangers; dis nou maar eenmaal so, en die geskiedenis bewys dit, byvoorbeeld in die geval van Nazi-Duitsland, dat blatante, nasionalistiese, anti-enigietsandersasons-propaganda altyd ’n vrugbare oor vind waar meta-kognisie skraal of afwesig is. Dit word nou weer bewys; Rusland mobiliseer meerendeels in arm, landelike streke waar die opvoedingspeil laag is, en minder in die metropolitaanse streke soos Moskou en Sint Petersburg. Meeste professionele mans uit daardie dele het in elk geval al die land verlaat.
Interessante navorsing. Wat ook interessant sal wees, is om te sien of die pro-Russiese sentiment afgeneem het, veral nadat partye soos die EFF en ANC hulself begin skaar het aan die Russiese kant. Van wat ek waarneem, blyk dit vir my asof pro-Russiese sentiment onder Afrikaners wel afgeneem het
Ek is al moeg vir populêre tipe opinies van troppie Mofskape pro-Oekraïene kommentators. Ek lees wyd en het volle reg tot my EIE siening, volgens my EIE oordeel.