Frans Rautenbach writes on Facebook:
I hope our government comes to its senses. The threat of COVID-19 and the solution to fix it have been entirely misconceived.
To start with, we must have a basic understanding of the relative size of the threat in socio-economic terms. At this stage, the claimed fatalities due to infection by the virus are just short of 30 000. That is fewer than 4 per million people. In 2017 1,3 million HIV negative people died of TB (about 185 per million). In 2016 more than 9 million died of heart disease (about 1 300 per million), more than 6 million of strokes (about 860 per million). Lower respiratory infections (flu, cold, pneumonia other than COVID-19) claimed 2,5 million (357 per million).
Of course the disease still has to complete its damage, but we are three months in, which is not negligible, and the virus has (as measured) claimed about 0,2% of the number claimed by some of the major killer diseases.
But that is assuming the above death tally due to the virus as primary cause is correct. Far more important is whether patients with coronavirus infection would have died of their underlying conditions anyway.
Illustration: Pixabay.com
This is no idle question. So, for example, 99% of recorded COVID-19 deaths in Italy were patients with asthma, heart problems, high blood pressure, lung afflictions and other conditions that would probably have caused their deaths in the near future anyway. At the same time not many people know that the general mortality rate in Europe is currently lower than normal for this time of year.
In light of the overall numbers this should hardly be a surprise. For example: Annual global mortality is about 58 million. The currently lower mortality in Europe shows, among other things, that at present, COVID-19 mortality is no more than statistical noise.
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“So-called COVID-19 deaths do not even cause an uptick in mortality. Many candidates for such deaths are now nominally dying of COVID-19, but in reality they are dying with COVID-19, but of a different, existing disease.”
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To the extent that we can make any assessment of the socio-economic cost of deaths, that puts such attempts in perspective in relative terms. The cost is so small that it is not statistically significant when weighed up against the costs of other causes of death, and the loss to the economy as a whole due to lockdowns and so on.
The lower rate of deaths in Europe is probably partly due to a mild flu season, which would have caused many more deaths in a normal year. Many candidates who are marked as deceased due to COVID-19 would in a normal year have succumbed to flu.
But the lower rate is also due to the fact that those who die are sick people anyway. So-called COVID-19 deaths do not even cause an uptick in mortality. Many candidates for such deaths are now nominally dying of COVID-19, but in reality they are dying with COVID-19, but of a different, existing disease. There are no global statistics on deaths primarily or exclusively caused by the virus. The probability is, however, clearly that actual COVID-19 fatalities are not even a statistical blip in affected countries.
In the meantime South Africa’s economy is on its knees. In South Africa it is no stretch to say that poverty is responsible for hundreds of thousands of premature deaths annually – through malnutrition, child mortality, exposure, crime and diseases that are almost entirely limited to low-income groups, such as TB, Aids and malaria.
Thomas Sowell famously said: “There are no solutions, only trade-offs.” Just face the fact: Every life that we notionally save by means of our draconian clamp-down comes at the expense of multiple others lost through poverty.
As it is, we have very little fat built into our economy. We are living on borrowed time and money anyway. There is only one way to cure that disease, and that is to enable our entire working-age population to become productive as soon as possible. That we can do by first of all lifting the lockdown and other regulations tied to the epidemic.
Secondly, if emergency measures are called for, then those must surely be measures to remove labour laws, trade union protection, BEE, EE, and the threats to implement NHI and EWC. If desperate times call for desperate measures, we qualify. But let’s not cure the disease and kill the patient in the process.
Please understand this: The main reason we are (rightly or wrongly) deemed to be so vulnerable to the pandemic is that the majority of adults in this country are just about completely unproductive, and poor as a result. They are the ones living in crowded accommodation, and living with immunity-compromising conditions.
Also understand that there is only one source of modern medical services, equipment, vaccines and drugs. Only one. And that is wealth creation by means of a healthy capitalist economy.
Everything else is not only smoke and mirrors. It is hugely damaging.
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Afrikaanse vertaling:
COVID-19, die bedreiging in sosio-ekonomiese terme
Ek hoop ons regering kom tot sy sinne. Die bedreiging van COVID-19 en die oplossing daarvoor word totaal misgetas.
Om mee te begin, moet ons ’n basiese begrip van die relatiewe grootte van die bedreiging in sosio-ekonomiese terme hê. In dié stadium is die beweerde sterftes weens besmetting met die virus wêreldwyd net oor 30 000. Dit is minder as 4 per miljoen mense. In 2017 het 1,3 miljoen MIV-negatiewe mense aan tuberkulose gesterf (omtrent 185 per miljoen). In 2016 sterf meer as 9 miljoen aan hartsiektes (omtrent 1 300 per miljoen). Meer as 6 miljoen aan beroertes (omtrent 860 per miljoen). Infeksies van die laer asemhalingstelsel (griep, verkoue en longontsteking anders as COVID-19) eis 2,5 miljoen (375 per miljoen).
Illustrasie: Pixabay.com
Natuurlik moet die siekte nog sy skadetog voltooi, maar ons is al drie maande op pad, wat nie onbenullig is nie, en die virus het (soos gemeet) omtrent 0,2% van die sterfgetal weens party van die groter dodelike siektes geëis.
Maar dit is op die aanname dat die dodetal soos hier bo aan die virus toegeskryf, korrek is. Veel belangriker is of pasiënte met koronavirusinfeksie in ieder geval van hulle onderliggende toestande sou gesterf het.
Dit is nie sommer ’n ydele vraag nie. Só byvoorbeeld was 99% van COVID-19-sterftes in Italië pasiënte met asma, hartprobleme, hoë bloeddruk, longaandoenings en ander toestande wat waarskynlik tot hulle dood in die afsienbare toekoms sou gelei het. Terselfdertyd weet min mense dat die algemene sterftekoers in Europa tans laer as normaal vir dié tyd van die jaar is.
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“Jaarlikse wêreldwye sterftes is omtrent 58 miljoen. Die huidige laer sterftekoers in Europa wys dat, benewens ander faktore, COVID-19 nie meer as statistiese geruis is nie.”
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In die lig van die totale syfers beskou, behoort dit nouliks ’n verrassing te wees. Jaarlikse wêreldwye sterftes is omtrent 58 miljoen. Die huidige laer sterftekoers in Europa wys dat, benewens ander faktore, COVID-19 nie meer as statistiese geruis is nie. Na die mate waarin ons enige waardasie van die sosio-ekonomiese koste van sterftes kan maak, plaas dit sulke pogings in relatiewe perspektief. Die koste is só klein dat dit nie statisties beduidend is wanneer dit teen die koste van ander doodsoorsake, en die koste vir die ekonomie weens inperkings en so meer afgeweeg word nie.
Die laer sterftekoers in Europa is waarskynlik deels te danke aan ’n matige griepseisoen, wat in ’n normale jaar baie meer lewens sou geëis het. Baie kandidate wat as sterfgevalle weens COVID-19 aangeteken word, sou in ’n normale jaar aan griep gesterf het. Maar die laer koers is ook toe te skryf aan die feit dat dié wat sterf, in elk geval siek mense is. Sogenaamde COVID-19-sterftes veroorsaak nie eers ’n opwaartse knik in sterftes nie.
Baie sulke kandidate sterf nou nominaal aan COVID-19, maar in werklikheid sterf hulle met COVID-19, en van ’n ander, bestaande siekte. Daar is geen statistiek van sterftes wat primêr of uitsluitlik deur die virus veroorsaak word nie. Die waarskynlikheid is egter duidelik dat werklike COVID-19-sterftes nie eers ’n statistiese flikkering in geraakte lande is nie.
Intussen is Suid-Afrika se ekonomie op sy knieë. In Suid-Afrika is dit nie ’n wilde stelling dat armoede jaarliks vir honderde duisende voortydige sterftes verantwoordelik is weens wanvoeding, kindersterftes, blootstelling, misdaad en siektes soos tuberkulose, Vigs en malaria, wat feitlik geheel en al tot lae-inkomste-groepe beperk is.
Thomas Sowell se beroemde woorde lui: “There are no solutions, only trade-offs” (Daar is geen oplossings nie, slegs afwegings).
Kyk net dié feit in die oë: Elke lewe wat ons meen ons met ons drakoniese grendelstaat red, kom ten koste van vele ander wat weens armoede verlore gaan. Daar is hoeka bitter min vet in ons ekonomie ingebou. Ons leef buitendien op geleende tyd en geld. Daar is net een manier om dáárdie siekte te genees, en dit is om ons bevolking in die werkende ouderdomsgroep in staat te stel om so gou moontlik produktief te raak.
Illustrasie: Pixabay.com
Dít kan ons net doen deur eerstens die inperking en alle regulasies wat met die epidemie verband hou, op te hef. Tweedens, as noodmaatreëls gepas is, dan moet dit sekerlik maatreëls wees om arbeidswette, vakbondbeskerming, SEB, diensbillikheid en die dreigemente om NHI en onteiening sonder vergoeding in te stel, te verwyder. As krisistye noodmaatreëls regverdig, kwalifiseer ons. Maar moenie dat ons die siekte genees en die pasiënt in die proses om die lewe bring nie.
Verstaan asseblief: Die hoofrede waarom ons (ten regte of nie) as weerloos teen die pandemie beskou word, is dat die meerderheid volwassenes net mooi totaal onproduktief, en gevolglik arm is. Dit is húlle wat in oorvol blyplekke woon, en met immuniteit-onderdrukkende toestande leef.
Verstaan ook dat daar net een bron van moderne mediese diens, toerusting, entstof en medisyne is. Net een. En dit is welvaart wat deur ’n gesonde kapitalistiese ekonomie geskep word.
Alles anders is nie net oëverblindery nie. Dit is uiters skadelik.
Kommentaar
Die pas en spoed van doen in die land is te stadig en die in beheer van die geldsakkie help hulpself en maters eerste. Hoeveel geld wat nou uitgedeel word reg spandeer?